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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest improvement is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

However the latest field is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and recent underperformers ascending in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a normal year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still