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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd